2010 Fiesta Bowl Preview

#3 TCU vs #6 Boise State

The Stats:
TCU Passing Yards/Game: 212.6
Boise State Passing Yards/Game: 266.0
TCU Rushing Yards/Game: 256.5
Boise State Rushing Yards/Game: 194.5
TCU Passing Defense: 152.8 Passing Yards Allowed/Game
Boise State Passing Defense: 172.8 Passing Yards Allowed/Game
TCU Rushing Defense: 80.5 Rushing Yards Allowed/Game
Boise State Rushing Defense: 126.8 Rushing Yards Allowed/Game

The #3 TCU Horned Frogs (yes, the Horned Frogs) come in as 8-point favorites over the Boise State Broncos. The last time Boise State was in the Fiesta Bowl, they were strong underdogs to the Oklahoma Sooner and the game was expected to be over in the first quarter. However, it wound up being the greatest college football game of all time.

Mike Peterson, Boise's Head Coach, is a tremendous coach and I'm not sure that I've ever seen anyone accomplish more with less as much as he has. I'm not saying that Boise doesn't have any talent, they just don't have what a USC or Oklahoma have year in and year out, yet they still play well every year. Their defense gives up the 14th fewest passing yards/game and the 40th fewest rushing yards/game. They are also a very pass-heavy team averaging 266 yards/game. If they plan to win this one, they will have to find the very few holes in the Horned Frogs' defense and exploit them.

As far as TCU, I personally think they could hang with the Texas Longhorns, maybe even beat them. As I alluded to above, they have one of the best defenses in the country, giving up the 3rd fewest rushing yards per game and the 5th fewest passing yards per game. Being the Alma Mater of LaDainian Tomlinson, one would expect them to be a very run-oriented offense and they are as they average 256.5 rushing yards per game (5th most in the country). If they are going to win this game, I expect them to play what I call "True Chicago Bears Football" which involves a stark shut-down defense and an aggressive running attack. Boise State is 40th in the nation in rushing yards allowed/game, which is respectable but might not be good enough to stop the 5th best running team in the nation.

My prediction for the final score: 37-14 TCU.

Allow me to say that this is one of the biggest travesties since the BCS was created in that the two small schools that absolutely could have knocked down a big school were forced to play each other. It's like putting them at the kids table while the big schools get to really play and show their stuff. I was livid when the schedule was announced and these two were going to play each other. I would have killed to see TCU play Florida. That probably would have been a good game (at least better than Cincy which has no defense) and imagine Boise playing Georgia Tech or Iowa. That would have been very entertaining as well. Oh well, money talks I guess.