I Can Predict the Future

Well, the Colts did it again. Yep, they quit. They pulled the old "let's just rest everyone and get crushed doing it" ploy. Now, does it make sense to rest guys who are hurt? Absolutely. Mathis and others were hurt today so they didn't play. That's fine. But why oh why did we take Peyton Manning out along with the rest of our offense in the middle of the 3rd quarter when we were only 5 points up? Did we really expect "Chad Painter" (according to the CBS hack calling the game who I'm sure has the entire Jets lineup memorized) to save the day and help to protect our slim lead? Ugh.

So my prediction for the rest of the Colts season: no one will play against the Bills and we will roll over for them and lose, then we have a bye week during the wildcard weekend of the playoffs. Then we'll be completely flat for the Divisional playoff game and lose.

How can I be so sure? Well, let's look at some recent history.

In 2005, the Colts started the season 13-0 and faced the San Diego Chargers at home in Week 15. Drew Brees and the Chargers strong running game led to a 26-17 Colts defeat. The Colts took the next two weeks, losing to the Seattle Seahawks 28-13 and defeating the Arizona Cardinals 17-13, only because Peyton Manning played on the first drive and Arizona was terrible back then. The Colts then had a bye week and hosted the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Divisional round. The Colts trailed 21-3 after 3 quarters and wound up losing 21-18. The Colts likely would have won that game if they had been in a rhythm in the weeks leading up to the game.

In 2006, the Colts won the Super Bowl. Did they rest their starters at the end of the season? No. Peyton Manning played during the entire game against the Miami Dolphins in Week 17 and then we had to turn around and play the Kansas City Chiefs. That's funny, we didn't rest our starters and we kept on winning. Unbelievable, what a concept!!!

In 2007, the Colts entered Week 17 against the Tennessee Titans with a 13-2 record and the assurance of a first round bye, resulting in another game of scrub time. The starters only played 3 series and the Titans ultimately won the game 16-10. The Colts took their bye week and hosted the San Diego Chargers. The Colts had a solid 76 yard touchdown drive to start the game but their offense eventually disappeared and made some mistakes resulting in a 28-24 loss. Would we have won this game if we'd played our starters against Tennessee? Who knows but there seems to be a common theme.

In 2008, the Colts had to play in Week 17 against Tennessee and won 23-0 as Tennessee had nothing to play for and played their backups. The Colts won their last 9 regular season games and had to visit San Diego in the first round of the playoffs and lost 23-17 in overtime. Now, the Colts didn't rest anyone and still lost but I'm not sure that we could have won that game. I think the Chargers simply had our number. However, we could look at Tennessee who we faced the week before and clinched the AFC South. They didn't play their starters against us and had a bye week. What happened? They lost at home against the Baltimore Ravens 13-10. It probably would have helped to have some sort of momentum going into the playoffs for them.

So as you can see, there is a history of Colts teams taking Week 17 off due to our clinching of everything that we can for the playoffs and to rest our starters, and it usually doesn't end well. I think that is why I am so livid about what occurred today against the Jets. Going undefeated was just a by-product of our success so far. I really just wanted to have some M-O heading into the part of the season that really matters and we aren't going to have any. And was it really necessary to take Peyton Manning out in the middle of the 3rd quarter? Couldn't he play 2 or 3 more series and then get taken out with 5 minutes or so left and a larger lead than 5 points?

So here's to another season ending prematurely. Congratulations San Diego. You're welcome. Enjoy your AFC Championship.